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The earthquake
France > Basics > History > Chirac > The earthquake

The presidential elections in the spring of 2002 were to shake the French electorate out of their apathy, leading as they did to the shock success of Le Pen in the first round, winning enough to go through to the second round along with Chirac, and knocking Jospin out of the contest.

In the early stages of the campaign, however, it seemed that Jospin had a real chance of winning. He'd performed well on the economy and had the advantage of a largely untainted record. His hopes of victory had been bolstered by the election of Socialist Bertrand Delanoë as Mayor of Paris in March 2001 – the first time that the socialists had won control of the capital since the bloody uprising of the Paris Commune in 1871. In the run-up to the elections, however, Jospin's lead over Chirac dwindled. The economy began to falter, unemployment was once more on the rise and fears over crime were widespread.

In addition to these domestic issues, Jospin's standing suffered badly over the Corsica issue. His radical proposal to give the island a degree of autonomy and end separatist violence met with bitter opposition from the Gaullists. However, Jospin went ahead and pushed his autonomy bill through parliament in May 2001, only to have it ruled in January 2002 as unconstitutional by France's highest legal body, the Constitutional Council. Jospin's authority was dealt a severe blow and his standing in the opinion polls fell.

The other major inhibiting factor in Jospin's election campaign was his image. He came across as a dry academic, described by one journalist as having all the charisma of a retired Swedish professor of religious studies. The backslapping, high-living Chirac, on the other hand, despite his scandal-mired background and non-existent record of achievement over the previous five years, had lost none of his ability to charm and seemed to be winning back the electorate, bolstered by frequent appearances on the world stage after the September 11 terrorist attacks in the US. But on the whole, Chirac's campaign lacked substance and was as uninspiring as Jospin's – both were seen as rather tired candidates with nothing new to offer.

That they would both emerge as winners of the first round seemed a foregone conclusion though – so much so that many people didn't bother to vote. It was with utter shock and disbelief, therefore, that the country heard the announcement on the evening of April 21 that Jospin had failed to make it through, beaten into third place by the extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen – leaving Chirac and Le Pen to stand against each other in the final run-off in May. Le Pen had won just over 17 percent, Jospin 16 and Chirac 19.67. The result, widely referred to as an "earthquake", sent shockwaves throughout the country and abroad. The left-wing Libération declared that France had become the "shame of democracy" and that its people were "playing with fire" by lending its support to Le Pen. Fears that Le Pen's success foreshadowed a Europe-wide rise of the far right were voiced in the international press.

Much media space was devoted to analysing what had led to such an unexpected result. Widespread voter apathy was cited as the main culprit. Many voters had abstained – nearly 30 percent – or voted for marginal candidates as a way of protesting against the mainstream parties. The left were criticized for putting up too many candidates, thus splitting the vote and depriving Jospin of adequate backing. The Trotskyist Arlette Laguiller, for example, scored an unprecedented 5.7 percent, attracting working-class voters resentful of the prime minister's consensual economic policies. It was also felt that Chirac unwittingly helped Le Pen by campaigning on issues of law and order, the very issues, which after immigration, formed the core of Le Pen's manifesto; in a sense, Chirac had lent Le Pen's policies a measure of legitimacy. Le Pen himself had fought a canny campaign, toning down his racist rhetoric and making capital out of the mainstream parties' sleaze and remoteness from ordinary people.

The shock result of the first-round elections was, however, like a wake-up call to the nation. There was a sudden renewed interest in politics, applications for party membership went up, and large numbers of people took to the streets to protest against Le Pen and his anti-immigration policies. On May 1, 800,000 people packed the boulevards of Paris in the biggest demonstration the capital had seen since the student protests of 1968. Chirac's victory in the next round was assured, with the Socialists calling on its supporters to vote for Chirac in order to keep Le Pen out.

Two weeks later in the run-off, Chirac duly swept the board, winning 82 percent, by far the biggest majority ever won by a French president, though the result could hardly be seen as a ringing endorsement of the incumbent.

With the parliamentary elections still to come, Chirac's supporters rallied round to create an umbrella grouping of right-wing parties, called the Union for a Presidential Majority, to try and win for Chirac the majority in parliament that he'd failed to secure in 1997. The Socialists, severely shaken by Jospin's earlier defeat, were no match and the Right won, sweeping to power with 369 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly.

The drama wasn't over yet though. During the Bastille Day parade on July 14, a neo-Nazi sympathizer attempted to assassinate President Chirac with a small-bore rifle that he took out of a guitar case. The incident recalled several similar attempts made against Général de Gaulle and also drew attention to the bitterness felt by the far right at having failed to gain any seats in parliament despite winning 13 percent of the vote – in effect six million voters had been disenfranchised. This together with Le Pen's score of 18 percent in the second round of the presidential poll and the high absention rate forced the French elite to recognize the anger felt by a sizeable proportion of the electorate, not just against immigration and crime, but also at the remoteness of government and the unaccountability of bureaucrats in Paris.

So far, Chirac's presidency has seemed to take some of these popular concerns on board. One of his first measures in fact has been a devolution bill, giving more power to 26 regional assemblies and ending the domination of central government dating from the time of the 1789 Revolution. The measure represents a major U-turn for the Gaullists, who have always been staunchly against any devolution of power. In addition, Chirac has responded to fears over rising crime by increasing the number of police officers. He has also pledged more prison places for young offenders and subsidies to help the unemployed find work – all this while promising to cut income tax. With economic growth down, finding the extra cash to pay for these measures won't be easy.


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